The Nexus of Soil Degradation, Climate Change, and Food Insecurity: A Looming Global Migration Crisis

Abstract

The convergence of climate change, soil degradation, and food insecurity presents a profound challenge to global stability, with projections indicating a potential doubling of global migration by the end of the century. This report synthesizes findings from leading international organizations and research initiatives to analyze the intricate relationships between these factors and their implications for human displacement. The World Bank's projections highlight the potential for significant migration by 2050, particularly in regions like Sub-Saharan Africa. Data from the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) reveals alarming trends in increasing aridification, threatening crop yields and exacerbating water scarcity. Soil degradation, a critical yet often overlooked driver, diminishes land productivity and resilience to climate shocks. Policy interventions, as advocated by movements like Save Soil, are essential to reverse this trend and build more sustainable agricultural systems. The escalating challenge of food security, compounded by a growing global population, is further intensified by declining agricultural productivity and rising temperatures. This analysis underscores the urgent need for integrated action to mitigate climate change, restore degraded lands, ensure food security, and thereby avert a potentially catastrophic surge in global migration. Crucially, building healthy abd living soils by enhancing soil organic matter emerges as a pivotal strategy, directly improving soil water retention, harvesting water into aquifers, nutrient cycling, and carbon sequestration, thus bolstering agricultural resilience and mitigating the drivers of displacement.

Introduction: The Escalating Crisis of Environmental Migration

Environmental migration, the movement of people compelled to leave their habitual places of residence due to sudden or progressive environmental changes, is an increasingly significant global phenomenon. This form of migration is not solely driven by dramatic events like conflict, hurricanes or floods but also by the slow-onset impacts of climate change, such as prolonged droughts and sea-level rise, which undermine livelihoods and render regions less habitable. At the heart of this escalating crisis lies a complex nexus between soil degradation, climate change,, and food insecurity. These interconnected issues amplify each other, creating a vicious cycle that forces individuals and communities to seek refuge and sustenance elsewhere. This report draws upon the expertise and data from key organizations, including the World Bank, the UNCCD, the World Resources Institute (WRI), the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), and the Economics of Land Degradation and Improvement (ELD) report, to provide a comprehensive analysis of this looming global challenge.

It is important to recognize that the portrayal of climate migration in media often presents a simplified narrative, potentially hindering the development of effective long-term solutions. While images of vulnerable populations are powerful in raising awareness, they may overshadow the fundamental factors and the necessity for sustainable interventions in areas such as soil management and agricultural practices. Furthermore, while climate change is undoubtedly a major catalyst for environmental migration, soil and land degradation acts as a significant multiplier, diminishing the capacity of communities to withstand climate shocks and intensifying food insecurity. Healthy soil possesses the ability to retain water during periods of drought and improve drainage during floods, thus buffering the impacts of climate variability on agricultural systems. Degraded soil, however, loses this crucial function, making agricultural production far more susceptible to environmental stresses, increasing the likelihood of failied livelihood, food insecurity and therefore displacement.

Projected Global Migration: Evidence from the World Bank and UNCCD

World Bank Projections of Climate Migration

The World Bank's updated Groundswell report provides stark projections regarding the potential scale of internal climate migration in the coming decades. The report estimates that by 2050, climate change could force as many as 216 million people across six world regions to migrate within their own countries. These regions include Sub-Saharan Africa, East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, North Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to experience the largest internal climate migration, with potentially up to 86 million people displaced within the region by mid-century. These movements are primarily driven by the adverse impacts of climate change on people's livelihoods and the decreasing livability of highly exposed areas due to factors like water scarcity and declining crop productivity. The report also offers a glimmer of hope, suggesting that immediate and concerted global action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, coupled with support for sustainable, inclusive, and resilient agricultural development, could significantly reduce the scale of migration, potentially by as much as 80 percent.

While the Groundswell report focuses specifically on internal migration, the implications for cross-border movements are significant. It is reasonable to anticipate that substantial internal displacement will contribute to increased pressure for international migration as resources become depleted and livelihoods are destroyed within countries. Individuals displaced within their nations may eventually seek opportunities and safety in other countries, further contributing to the projected doubling of global migration by the end of the century. The phenomenon of climate migration encompasses both rapid-onset disasters, such as hurricanes and floods, and slow-onset events, including droughts, floods and sea-level rise, all of which can lead to food insecurity and ultimately force people to move. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects that by 2050, over one billion people globally could be exposed to coastal-specific climate hazards, potentially leading to the displacement of tens to hundreds of millions of people. Furthermore, the COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the heightened vulnerability of internally displaced persons, as it exacerbated food insecurity among this population. This demonstrates how environmental displacement can compound existing vulnerabilities and create a cycle of hardship, potentially leading to further migration in search of stability and sustenance. In the context of the early 2025 implementation of substantial trade tariffs by the Trump administration, designed to prioritize domestic production and reduce reliance on foreign imports, the resulting constraints on global trade and the potential for increased economic hardship worldwide increase external migratory pressures and underscore the heightened necessity for nations to pursue food sovereignty and bolster regional self-sufficiency, thereby mitigating internal migration towards already strained urban centers.

UNCCD and Projections of Aridification and Displacement

The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) plays a crucial role in addressing land degradation, which is a significant factor contributing to migration. The UNCCD's focus extends to the concept of "aridification," which refers to the long-term decline in land productivity due to a persistent lack of moisture. This is a more enduring condition than one cycle of drought, requiring long-lasting adaptation measures. The UNCCD projects that by the end of the century, as many as 5 billion people could reside in drylands, making them highly susceptible to desertification – the degradation of land in water-limited areas – and subsequent displacement. Therefore, by 2100, about twice as many people are expected to move from their places of origin compared to today. Alarmingly, the UNCCD indicates that a substantial portion of the world's land has already undergone a permanent shift towards drier conditions, a trend directly linked to human-caused climate change. An area equivalent to half the size of Australia has transformed from humid to drylands, resulting in reduced rainfall for agriculture, pastures, and human populations. This permanent shift in land condition suggests that traditional livelihoods - like farming, agriculture, pastoralism or forestry - in these affected regions may no longer be sustainable, thereby increasing the likelihood of migration.

The UNCCD's Aridity Report provides detailed projections of changes in aridity index classes for the mid-century (2021–2050) and late-century (2071–2100) under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Notably, Europe is projected to experience the largest proportionate increase in drylands under high emissions scenarios (SSP5-8.5), with approximately 15% of the region expected to shift to a drier aridity class by the end of the century. Potential hotspots for intensified aridification by the end of the century include significant areas of the United States, Central America, the Amazon, Chile, the Mediterranean Region, Africa’s sub-Saharan Atlantic Coast, south-eastern Africa (including Madagascar), southern Asia, and southern Australia. Furthermore, regions currently classified as non-drylands (humid), such as the Midwestern United States, central Mexico, northern Venezuela, north-eastern Brazil, south-eastern Argentina, the Mediterranean region, large parts of southern Africa, and the east and west coasts of southern Australia, are projected to transition to drylands by 2100 under high emissions scenarios (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5). Importantly, the projections indicate that no region is expected to transition from historical drylands to future wetlands, suggesting a widespread expansion of dryland areas globally.

The Devastating Impact of Soil Degradation on Crop Production

Soil degradation stands as a major impediment to sustainable development, threatening the livelihoods of rural populations, triggering forced migration, and exacerbating conflicts over scarce natural resources. The scale of this issue is alarming, with estimates suggesting that 95% of the Earth's land is on track to become degraded by 2050 if current trends persist. Degraded soil, characterized by low levels of organic matter, loses its capacity to retain water effectively, making agricultural systems highly vulnerable to climate shocks such as droughts. This decline in soil health contributes to a rapid increase in the frequency and intensity of climate shocks globally, threatening the lives and livelihoods of millions and forcing displacement. As an example, the situation in the Catalan region of Spain, a significant food exporter, illustrates that soil degradation and its consequences are not limited to developing nations. This region faces increasingly frequent and severe droughts, impacting agricultural productivity and highlighting the potential for even developed countries to experience food security challenges and potentially contribute to migration flows due to land degradation. Globally, approximately 20% of the Earth's vegetated surface exhibits persistent declining trends in productivity, primarily as a result of unsustainable land and water use and management practices. 

• In Africa, the pressure on land resources is projected to increase substantially due to rapid population growth and the rising demand for food and fiber. Consequently, agricultural expansion is increasingly occurring on marginal lands, which are characterized by less fertile soils and unfavorable climatic conditions, leading to lower crop yields. By mid-century, Sub-Saharan Africa may lose between 17% and 22% of its current crop production due to rising temperatures and increasing aridity. Specifically, millet yields are projected to decline by 25% by mid-century if greenhouse gas emissions remain high. Furthermore, in Kenya, maize yields are expected to drop by 50% by 2050 under a high emissions scenario. 

• Europe faces a significant challenge with soil degradation, particularly in the form of severe soil erosion. Approximately 12 million hectares of agricultural land across the European Union are affected by this process. This widespread soil erosion results in an estimated loss of around 0.43% in crop productivity each year within the EU. While this percentage might appear small, when aggregated across the vast agricultural land of the European Union, it translates to a substantial economic loss worth of €1.25 billion worth of agricultural produce. Beyond erosion, nutrient imbalances affect a large proportion of agricultural land in the EU, estimated at 74%. This indicates that many European soils are either lacking essential nutrients or have an excess of others, both of which can negatively impact crop yields and overall soil health. Furthermore, there is a concerning trend of decreasing soil organic carbon in agricultural areas across the EU. Soil organic carbon is crucial for maintaining soil structure, water retention, and nutrient availability, so its decline further degrades the soil's ability to support crop growth.

• India faces a significant challenge with soil degradation, with approximately 33% of its total geographic area, amounting to 115 to 120 million hectares, affected by various forms of degradation. This includes widespread water erosion, wind erosion, salinity, and vegetation loss, all of which diminish the productive capacity of the land. Given that a large percentage of India's population relies on agriculture for their livelihoods, this level of soil degradation poses a substantial threat to both food security and economic stability. One of the most significant contributors to agricultural losses in India is soil erosion due to water. This process alone results in an annual crop production loss of 13.4 million tonnes in key crops such as cereals, oil seeds, and pulses. The economic value of this lost production is estimated to be approximately USD 162 billion.

• East Asia has experienced a concerning trend of increasing soil nutrient depletion, which has directly contributed to a decline in crop yields in the region. Between 2002 and 2013, the depletion of essential soil nutrients, specifically nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, rose significantly from -14.7 million tons to -18.2 million tons. This indicates a worsening of soil health over this period, as these nutrients are vital for plant growth and overall agricultural productivity. 

• In Central Asia, agricultural productivity has experienced a substantial decline, with crop yields dropping by as much as 30% over the past 30 years due to the nexus of the desertification of pastures and significant land erosion. In addition, intensive agricultural practices, often driven by the need to increase production, along with deforestation and overgrazing, have led to substantial soil erosion, reduced soil fertility, and the expansion of desertified areas, all of which jeopardize ecosystems, food security, and the availability of water resources crucial for agriculture.

• Australia faces significant challenges related to land degradation, with soil salinization and erosion being particularly impactful on crop production. Over one million hectares of farmland across Australia have already been severely degraded by salinity, and an additional 2.8 to 4.5 million hectares are considered to be at immediate risk. This extensive area affected by salt accumulation in the soil represents a substantial loss of productive agricultural land, posing a major threat to the sustainability of farming in many regions. The removal of deep-rooted native vegetation during European colonization disrupted the natural water balance, leading to a rise in groundwater tables and the mobilization of salt to the soil surface. This salty soil directly hinders the ability of plants to absorb water through osmosis, leading to dehydration and significantly reduced crop yields.

• In South America, deforestation for agricultural expansion has resulted in widespread soil degradation with a concerning 75% of soils classified as degraded. This alarming statistic, highlighted by the FAO, underscores the significant pressure on the region's vital land resources. This degradation manifests in various forms, including erosion, nutrient depletion, and contamination, all of which severely impact the ability of the land to support productive agriculture. The consequences of this widespread soil degradation are substantial, leading to economic losses estimated at up to USD 60 billion per year due to reduced agricultural productivity.

• In North America, intensive agricultural practices, including excessive tillage and monoculture cropping, have led to significant soil erosion and nutrient depletion. In the US, soil erosion rates have been estimated to exceed soil formation rates by an order of magnitude, resulting in significant topsoil loss, which reduces soil fertility and water-holding capacity directly affecting food production.

The Looming Food Security Challenge in a Growing World

The global population is projected to increase significantly up to 9.7 billion by 2050, placing immense pressure on food production systems. Land degradation has the potential to reduce global food productivity by 12% within the next 25 years. Consequently, world food prices are projected to increase by 30% as a direct result of this decline in productivity. These economic impacts further exacerbate food insecurity and can contribute to social unrest and conflict, ultimately fueling migration. The global costs associated with natural disasters and climate extremes are already on the rise, and land degradation acts as a significant contributing factor to these escalating costs. The reduction in agricultural output and the increase in food prices disproportionately affect vulnerable populations, potentially leading to instability and forcing people to migrate in search of food and economic opportunities.

The current global food system is facing significant challenges, threatening both human health and environmental sustainability. Inefficient patterns of food production, distribution, and consumption contribute to land degradation and pollution. Climate shocks, such as floods and droughts, further exacerbate food insecurity by directly reducing agricultural production and indirectly driving up food prices while depressing agricultural wages. Approximately 80% of the global population most vulnerable to crop failures and hunger due to climate change reside in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, and Southeast Asia.

The Crucial Role of Soil Organic Matter

In order to to precent a catastrophic surge in global migration due to the nexus of climate change and food insecurity, it is crucial to address the often overlooked issue of global soil degradation. In addition to reducing global green house gas emissions, it is essential to understand healthy soils plays in mitigation and adaptation strategies. To address this and to revitalize global soils despite global warming, soil organic matter can be identified as the most vital indicator of soil quality, playing a critical role in its overall function and resilience. It significantly enhances the soil's ability to retain water, allowing plants to access moisture more readily, particularly during periods of drought. Furthermore, increasing the organic carbon content of soil improves nutrient availability, reducing the reliance on synthetic fertilizers, which are a significant source of greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, the Save Soil Movement emphasizes the importance of maintaining soil organic matter levels between 3-6% (depending on regional conditions) to effectively combat soil degradation and mitigate the risk of droughts. This target provides a tangible goal for land restoration efforts and highlights the critical role of organic matter in soil health.

Regenerative agriculture offers a promising approach to restoring soil health by increasing organic matter content, thereby reversing land degradation and enhancing resilience to droughts. However, implementing these practices can be challenging, especially in regions with small farm plots where farmers may not be able to afford to leave land fallow or implement crop rotation with leguminous crops. Despite these challenges, promoting regenerative agriculture and other sustainable land management practices is crucial for improving soil health and reducing vulnerability to environmental changes.

Policy Recommendations to Combat Soil Degradation

The Save Soil movement advocates for several key policy recommendations to address the urgent crisis of soil degradation eventually acheiving the goal of building healthy and living soil with increased soil organic matter. These recommendations include prioritizing soil restoration in climate finance allocation, ensuring access for farmers to sustainable land management practices and technologies, developing supportive infrastructure to facilitate soil health initiatives, mobilizing private investment in land restoration projects, and integrating soil restoration into existing climate finance strategies. Raising public awareness about the critical importance of soil health and living soil is also a key aspect of this advocacy, as public support is often essential for driving policy changes.

The World Bank's Climate Change Action Plan (2021-2025) recognizes the importance of climate-smart agriculture and is increasing its support for initiatives that enhance productivity, improve resilience, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the agriculture and food value chains. An example of such an initiative is a World Bank-supported project in Niger, which aims to benefit 500,000 farmers and pastoralists by distributing improved, drought-tolerant seeds, promoting more efficient irrigation techniques, and expanding the use of forestry for farming and conservation agriculture. This project has demonstrated success in helping farmers manage their land more sustainably and has even attracted youth back from urban areas by creating climate-smart rural livelihood opportunities. This highlights the potential of integrated approaches to address both environmental degradation and migration drivers.

Conclusion: Addressing the Intertwined Crises to Mitigate Migration

The analysis presented in this report underscores the nexus of soil degradation, climate change, and food insecurity as primary drivers of a potential doubling of global migration. Addressing this nexus requires urgent, integrated, and comprehensive strategies to build healthy and living soils. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains paramount to mitigating the adverse impacts of climate change, which exacerbate both soil degradation and food insecurity. However, in addition, a widespread adoption of sustainable spil and land management practices is essential to improve life and health of soil, leading to enhanced water retention, and improved resilience to climate shocks. Policy interventions, as advocated by the Save Soil movement and its partners, are crucial to support these efforts through improved access of climate fiannce to farmers, supportive infrastructure, and the mobilization of private investment. Investing in the adoption of regenrative agriculture is also vital to enhance food security and create viable livelihoods in vulnerable regions, thereby reducing the pace of migration. International cooperation and financial support are necessary to assist developing countries in adapting to the impacts of climate change and land degradation. In conclusion, proactive and concerted efforts across all these fronts are indispensable to avert the projected surge in global migration and to build a more sustainable, resilient, and equitable future for all.

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